Every few decades, the travel industry hits a moment where the ground shifts beneath its feet. In 1999–2000, companies either moved online… or they ultimately didn’t survive. In 2026, we’re living through the next great inflection point… faster, more structural, and far less forgiving.
AI agents are beginning to dis-intermediate travel in ways the industry isn’t yet fully acknowledging. The economics of distribution are changing. Old tech architectures are bending under the weight of new expectations. And capital is rewarding clarity of purpose… not nostalgia for how things used to work.
Virtually every travel company – regardless of size, segment, or geography – will find themselves in one of four categories: Innovators, Buyers, Sellers, or Survivors.
The titles of the categories aren’t the point. The direction of travel is.
1. Innovators: Rewriting the Rules While Everyone Else Debates Them
The innovators are the companies treating this moment not as an upgrade cycle but as a full rewrite. They are building new infrastructure, compressing service costs with AI, and embracing modern retailing as the backbone of future revenue.
Some of these names are well-known: a global TMC leaning aggressively into AI-native workflows; a modern infrastructure platform turning travel retailing into something that looks more like e-commerce; a few forward-leaning airlines that now view dynamic offers as a competitive weapon rather than a technology debt problem.
Some are newer entrants – experience-first platforms redefining the travel “product,” or startups designing for a world where AI agents replace human search behavior.
None share the same strategy. But they share the same posture: They are rebuilding, not optimizing. They see distribution as a battlefield, not a cost center. And they know that the companies that own the rails will own the next decade.
In 1999, these were the OTAs. In 2026, these are the companies building the AI and retailing layer everyone else will depend on.
2. Buyers: The Ones Who Understand That Scale Is the Strategy
This second group isn’t necessarily more innovative… but they are more decisive. They’re the buyers.
In a market defined by automation-driven margin compression, scale is survival. And so 2026 will see a wave of companies – global TMCs, regional consolidators, supplier groups, private equity platforms – acquiring not just customers, but capabilities: modern retailing engines, AI servicing layers, niche technologies, mid-market specialists.
You can already see the pattern forming.
A large corporate travel player quietly picks up a regional agency with a loyal SME base. A major hospitality group invests in merchandising tools to control the guest journey from search to stay. A private equity investor that once valued growth above all is now hunting for under-invested assets it can transform.
These buyers aren’t “opportunistic.” They’re strategic actors building defensive walls and offensive options for a future in which smaller players simply won’t keep up.
3. Sellers: Companies Running Out of Road, Not Out of Talent
The seller category is the most misunderstood. Many assume it’s shorthand for distress. But in reality, most sellers in 2026 will be healthy businesses whose technology, processes, or capital structure simply can’t support the next wave of industry change.
Think of the hundreds of mid-sized travel businesses – TMCs, representation firms, tour operators, wholesale platforms – that have been profitable for decades but are now being priced out by tech transformation cycles they can’t feasibly absorb.
Some know exactly what they’re doing.
They see the inflection point clearly and want to monetize before the valuation gap widens. Others come to the table because customer expectations have outpaced their systems, or because they’re losing key staff to competitors with more modern tooling.
The best sellers in 2026 will be the ones who recognize that this isn’t defeat – it’s timing.
4. Survivors: The Long Tail Hanging On. Some Will Adapt, Some Will Fade
The final category isn’t “failure.” It’s survival. These are the companies that will continue operating – sometimes profitably, sometimes not – on old systems, manual workflows, and shrinking addressable markets.
Every industry has a long tail. In travel, that tail includes small agencies rooted in manual processes, niche operators dependent on supplier override economics, and tech providers still running platforms designed for a pre-NDC world. They serve loyal customers, do good work, and in many cases, provide real value.
But the market around them is changing faster than they can.
Some survivors will adapt slowly and find stable niches where automation can’t fully replace relationship-driven service. Others will persist for years, gradually losing share until they close or are absorbed quietly, without the dramatic headlines the industry usually reserves for its largest failures.
Survival is still a category. It’s just not a strategy.
The Opportunity Hidden in the Turbulence
This moment isn’t simply about contraction. It’s about expansion… of possibility, capability, and imagination.
Innovators will redefine the traveler experience. Buyers will consolidate the strongest foundations. Sellers will reshape the M&A landscape with unprecedented liquidity. Survivors will remind us that customer loyalty and human service still matter, even as tech accelerates.
The companies that accept this reality early will find themselves ahead of the market. The ones that resist it will spend 2026 debating fairness while others move on.
In 1999, the choice was clear: Move online or get left behind.
In 2026, the choice is just as stark: Innovate. Buy. Sell. Or survive long enough to decide which direction you’re heading.