As we look ahead toward 2026, the business travel market still appears to be in a state of flux. The just-released Deloitte’s 2025 Corporate Travel Study gives us a nuanced picture: on one hand, many indicators point to continued growth; on the other, there are real constraints and headwinds that could slow or reshape that growth. (For the full report, click here… Deloitte)

Based on this in-depth report, I’ll summarize and comment on the key positive drivers and key negative drivers that I think will likely shape the 2026 business travel forecast as well as suggest implications for travel managers, corporate leaders, and travel / hospitality providers.

Key Positive Drivers for 2026

1. Reinvigorated Strategic Purpose of Travel

• Organizations are increasingly treating travel not as a cost to be squeezed, but as a strategic investment. In 2025, many travel managers still view in-person engagement, client development, conferences, and training as central to value generation. (Note: The phase I coined back at GBTA still holds true… “Business Travel Drives Business Growth.”)
• The surge in demand for training, learning, and development travel is particularly notable: more companies are investing in upskilling and bringing teams together in person. In many smaller firms, “travel for training / L&D” is among the top three growth drivers.
• Conferences, events, and external stakeholder meetings remain core anchors for travel. Nearly two-thirds of business travelers expect to attend at least one conference in 2025.

2. Pent-up Demand and Normalization Momentum

• Although travel incidence dipped from 36% in 2024 to 31% in 2025, frequent-traveler behavior suggests a rebound: more travelers anticipate regular (6–10 trips) or frequent (10+ trips) travel.
• The shift back to farther-flung destinations (versus a primarily regional or domestic mix) suggests that companies are regaining confidence in international travel and the business case for global reach.
• Supplier flexibility is improving: more travel managers report that suppliers (hotels, airlines etc.) are accommodating and offering dynamic rate structures.
• Booking behavior is trending more compliant. Frequent travelers are increasingly leveraging corporate channels (49% “always use corporate channels” up from 43%) over off-platform or OTAs.
  Corporate travel booking tools have improved, narrowing experience gaps with OTAs; this can reduce friction and increase uptake.

3. Greater Strategic & Governance Orientation

• Rather than micromanaging every trip, firms are increasingly shifting to top-level governance, aligning travel policy with KPIs, sustainability goals, and strategic objectives.
• That shift can free up less-productive friction, making travel more “acceptable” in corporate planning rather than a cost to be vetoed trip by trip.

4. Segmented Growth Among Small / Mid-Sized Firms

• Larger firms are showing signs of pullback (more on that below), but smaller and mid-sized companies are generally more bullish. This is in part because the incremental gains from in-person engagement can be more visible and less bureaucratically challenged.

Key Negative / Constraining Drivers for 2026

1. Rising Cost Pressures & Inflationary Headwinds

• Over half of travel managers identified costs among their top three constraints in 2025 (54%, up from 48% in 2024).
• Larger companies are especially feeling the squeeze. 64% cite high prices as a top drag.
• The pressure is shifting toward lodging and in-destination spend (meals, ground transport), more so than flights.
• If inflation persists, energy, wages, real estate, and ancillary service costs may further compress margins in hospitality, which could force supplier price hikes or capacity constraints.

2. Greater Polarization in Corporate Behavior (Larger Firms Pulling Back)

• Among companies with > US $7.5M in travel spend, about 20% expect cuts in 2025. Only 59% expect increases, which is more cautious than in previous years.
• In contrast, smaller companies remain more optimistic. This polarization suggests that much of 2026 growth may come from smaller and mid-level firms, while heavyweight clients may remain conservative.
• Those larger firms are also more likely to point to declining event attendance or lower in-person interest among their clients.

3. Uncertainty, Strategic Pullbacks, & Shifting Business Models

• Many organizations are still in “experiment mode” trying to balance cost, risk, hybrid models, and ROI. The fear of overcommitting travel budgets in volatile times may lead to more cautious growth.
• The more strategic posture toward travel may also expose travel budgets to greater scrutiny and episodic cuts if macro conditions deteriorate (e.g., recession, geopolitical risk).
• Also, if virtual/hybrid alternatives (meetings, conferences) continue improving, some portions of travel demand might get permanently anchored to remote.

4. Demand Elasticity and Limits to Growth

• As travel recovers, incremental new volume may come at a premium – pushing into more marginal trips that are more easily cut.
• The “easy lift” recovery has mostly occurred. Future growth will require persuading marginal travelers to travel more which is a harder sell under tight budgets.

2026 Outlook: A “Cloudy with a Chance of Increase” Scenario

Putting it all together, my expectation for 2026 is modest, uneven growth in business travel – likely positive, but layered with risk and segmentation. A few key contours:

• Growth, but not uniform: Expect business travel budgets to rise in many firms, but with significant internal differentiation. Smaller and mid-sized companies may drive outsized share of growth; mega corporations may adopt more cautious or plateaued growth.
• Smart, selective travel wins: Trips will increasingly be judged on ROI, alignment with strategic goals, and sustainability impact. Unjustified or marginal trips will be under greater scrutiny.
• Supplier advantage to differentiation and flexibility: Hotels, airlines, and travel-tech vendors that can offer transparency, flexibility (cancellation policies, dynamic rates), sustainable credentials, and integrated tools will be better positioned.
• Pressure on margins and cost discipline: As supplier costs rise, corporates will keep pushing for better deals, compliance, and reduction of waste.
• Volatility risk remains high: A downturn, external shocks, or overcorrection on travel cuts could stifle momentum.

The sky is not entirely clear but there is opportunity for growth if businesses and suppliers navigate the complexity well!

Let’s Talk: At Travel Again Advisory, I work directly with business owners, investors, and industry leaders at these exact crossroads. Our industry is at another historic, pivotal inflection point. If you’re weighing your strategic options – let’s set up a conversation.

– Mike McCormick